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Thread: Three scenarios of Russia-Georgia conflict

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[quote=GUESTSU-27,311654]Russia and Georgia are at war. What are the prospects of the crisis? Will the conflict escalate to a larger regional war or even a world war? British Guardian media propose three scenarios:

Scenario One:
“If Russia was serious about its peacekeeping role in the region, it would do no more than push Georgian forces out of South Ossetia and attempt to return to the status quo before fighting broke out last week. Returning to the status quo will not be easy, however. Georgia have to face the fact that Moscow annexes South Ossetia into the Russian Federation.

Scenario Two:
The conflict could widen. Already Georgia's other separatist region, the Black Sea enclave of Abkhazia, is mobilising, and the capital, Tbilisi, has come under aerial attack. Other small nations could become involved in a broader Caucasian war. Even Chechnya has offered to send peacekeepers to Georgia and Russia's Cossacks are also volunteering to go to the front. The Kremlin could take advantage of the chaos to try to overthrow Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, whom it has hated since the 2003 "Rose revolution". Some Russian officials are calling for a Hague-style tribunal at which Saakashvili would be tried as a war criminal. Georgia's own hard-won independence could be at stake if Russia imposed a puppet regime in Tbilisi.

Scenario Three: 
The conflict spreads further still, bringing in former Soviet republics such as Ukraine which, like Georgia, aspires to membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and Kazakhstan, which is loyal to Moscow. The war in Yugoslavia would seem like small fry compared with any war among former Soviet republics. The only thing worse than that would be the military involvement of the West, which looks unlikely, given Europe's dependence on Russian energy and America's and Britain's commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Do you think which scenario is most likely result? 
[/quote]

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