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Thread: Which country will have hegemony in forty years?

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[quote=GUEST05022,307824]I would say not China and Not Russia. But maybe no one at all. Hegemony doesnt always exist:

1 - Predictions of Chinese hegemony are based on trend analysis over the last decade or so. In fact this is a terrible theory. China's economic growth is unsustainable at current levels (even down to 10%GDP), addicted to cheap credit and fuel subsidies which are bleeding the government in these times of high commodity prices, suffering from catastrophic environmental damage (which if factored in as negative growth actually means china has no net growth already - this is from China's envrionmental government departments), growing political and social instability, a lack of  resources food, oil, coal, etc, . China will overtake japan in GDP by...... has just been factored down by 2% a year for example (with growth having fallen)

2 - Geopolitically China has fundamental weaknesses that the US does not have to deal with. Huge land borders including two massive Eurasian powers -Russia and India. As well as ethnic minority boderlands which will always have the potential for unrest under a Han dominated system. China has to be constantly aware of this, whereas the US does not have to worry about challenges anywhere near the homeland - Mexico and Canada??!

3 - Demographically China is heading for a serious crisis as the One Child generation becomes the dominant part of the work force over the next 20 years. Having to support their parents who are often from multi-sibling families and their children who will be in many cases eligible for two offspring.

4 - China is already facing insurmountable problems with unemployment, inflation, expensive subsidies, overheating in certain economic areas, and profitless growth. Solving any one of these problems will only exacerbate others...[/quote]

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