| The China Fantasy | |
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| Nov 21, 2007 02:17 |   |
 | The China Fantasy written by James Mann has published and stirred a sensation in American society.Especially, American decision-makers are quite divided on this book. Have you read this book? What do you think about this book?  |
| Nov 21, 2007 02:19 | #1 |
| The following is a Chinese scholar's book review on the book The China Fantasy: Tunnel gives partial vision By Raymond Zhou (China Daily) China is a hot topic. Anyone who can predict its future is worth a million bucks. And James Mann is probably worth much more if his new book China Fantasy makes a difference to your decision-making. This slim volume is currently making big waves among China hands in the United States. It basically dismisses all their views into two categories: the 'soothing scenario' and the 'upheaval scenario', that is, those who believe dealing with China will lead to a more open and pluralistic political system, and those who contend China is so rife with contradictions it will inevitably implode. |
| Nov 21, 2007 02:20 | #2 |
| For someone who was stationed in China in the 1980s as a correspondent for the Los Angeles Times and who has kept abreast of situations here ever since, Mann thinks in extremely broad strokes. Everything is black and white. If China does A, it is morally good; if B, bad, and the US should follow with C, etc. No room for nuances and complexities. Calibration could well be performed with a computer program. And I apologize to computer programmers everywhere because they incorporate more degrees of possibilities. Admittedly, this book targets China hands in the US, especially those who advocate continued 'engagement' or 'integration' with China. Mann is impatient with them because what they preach is naivety at best and outright lies at worst. To dispel this thick cloud, he poses a 'Third Scenario', in which China's economy grows by leaps and bounds but the political issues he is concerned with remain unchanged. 'Americans have frequently formed their views of China on the basis of limited or skewed information,' writes Mann. He couldn't be more right. Unfortunately, he is one of them. He is so fixated on one issue that everything else is probably just a blur. To paraphrase questions he asked of others: Has he talked to migrant workers hundreds of them? Has he traveled to inland areas and gauged the sentiments of Chinese farmers? Has he browsed a Chinese website and pondered what millions of the young have in mind? |
| Nov 21, 2007 02:21 | #3 |
| He might get a rude awakening that most of these people are not on the same wavelength as he is. China is so vast and fast-changing that coming up with a 'Third Scenario' is by no means a sign of genius. There could be a hundred scenarios for China and each is valid because it can get an abundance of facts to back it up. The rosy picture about China in Thomas Friedman's The World Is Flat is more than soothing; it's intoxicating. But it's only one scenario out of hundreds, and quite far-fetched. If you change his 'soothing' and 'upheaval' terms into more generic 'positive' and 'negative', his own forecast could fall snugly into the second one. Think of it, it's a variation of the 'upheaval scenario'. |
| Nov 21, 2007 02:23 | #4 |
| An American classmate of mine in the business school in California was an avid reader of Mann's Beijing Jeep when I recommended it to him. After he climbed the corporate ladder in the 1990s, he repeatedly vetoed proposals to enter the China market. He just couldn't forget what a mess Chrysler got itself into in the 1980s with its China investment. Now, he admits he lost big time to his competitors. I figure that what Mann depicts in Beijing Jeep was largely accurate, for example, workers who would gaze at a Sears catalog for hours instead of getting some work done. That was the 1980s and people were curious about things they had never seen. But if you thought what happened in that book portended what would come later, you're probably kicking yourself and cursing the author for losing a golden opportunity. |
| Nov 21, 2007 02:27 | #5 |
| Actually, Mann did not say 'Don't invest in China', but that's the only logical conclusion you'll come to if you thought his was the picture of all of China. Likewise, Mann doesn't ask Americans to be 'tough on China', but it is the foregone conclusion. Like Beijing Jeep, China Fantasy offers one man's tunnel vision with even no attempt to venture into the complexity. |
| Nov 21, 2007 14:07 | #6 |
| Sounds like another case where the adage, "...educated beyond their intelligence" applies. More than once I have been accused of being overly optimistic about China's future. Even though the level of cultural erosion is appalling, I believe in the end China will find its way to a bright future by prudent application of cultural standards. I believe much of the ignorance surrounding China is self-imposed ignorance. It is denial that some day soon the USA will not be the most technologically advanced, economic powerhouse in the world. |
| Nov 21, 2007 21:29 | #7 |
| Right, James Mann has a tunnel vision. "He poses a 'Third Scenario', in which China's economy grows by leaps and bounds but the political issues he is concerned with remain unchanged." The Third Scenario Mann proposed implies that despite of the skyrocketing economic growth, China won't make any tangible progress in politics or democracy. His further undertone is that China will inevitably become the most threatening rivals(enemies) for the USA. Mann's Third Scenario is another mutation of "China Threat Theory". Admittedly, as an assumption, Mann's "Third Scenario" give no cause for criticism. However, there is something wrong with Mann's logic. Firstly, Mann only focuses on the democracy. He thinks that as long as a country has a democratic system, it will not be an enemy for America. Here is the question: Palestine wants a more democratic government. The referendum (a form of democracy) would probably select a government that will be more hostile than PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization) towards American Government.Secondly, he shows little concerns for the changes of particulars except politics. Well, the changes in particulars are the stuffs that a pressman and China hands must be quite aware of. This book reminds me of a similar book published several years ago. The book " The Coming Collapse of China" was scribbled by Gordon Chang. Although Gordon Chang's conclusion was overthrown by the subsequent prosperous prospect of China, at least Gordon had some wits and adopted some facts to justify his theory;whereas Mann has less ten percent of Mann's wit. |
| Nov 23, 2007 03:35 | #8 |
| Quote: "I believe much of the ignorance surrounding China is self-imposed ignorance. It is denial that some day soon the USA will not be the most technologically advanced, economic powerhouse in the world. " Right, Griz, just like the author of the above-mentioned book, his ignorance of China is absolutely self-imposed. However, I can't believe that he himself is a pressman and diplomat. He should have the ethics of integrity of press.Otherwise, he must have some political purposes. |
| Nov 24, 2007 15:23 | #9 |
| >>>He should have the ethics of integrity of press.Otherwise, he must have some political purposes. LEOPOLD219, my first career was as a journalist and I was quite good at it. However, I left that profession when I realized that an "ethical press" is an oxymoron. Sadly, today's journalists rarely report the news, they spin it like a top to achieve their political purposes as you so wisely perceived. |
| Nov 26, 2007 03:54 | #10 |
| GUEST1202 | "I left that profession when I realized that an "ethical press" is an oxymoron." Journalism's good reputation has been jeopardized by some "dishonest journalists". Griz, in your career, you didn't make up any news report? No wonder you were out of work. You should learn from James Mann. LOL! |
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