How far will RMB go?

How far will RMB go?
Feb 2, 2008 22:37	#11
MARRIE Points: Join Date: Jan 7, 2008 Status: Offline	Thanks Jimmy. I am an old student not an economist. US is no Russia, China is no Japan. I mean both nations are rational, wise and responsible in solving global issues. Corrupted officers ( i bet most of them were under educated in Mao's dynasty)existed in state-owed enterprises 10 yr ago, things have changed a lot now i believe. Actually corrupion can also be found in the west public corp, but they have more advanced regulatory system to control dark side of human nature.

Feb 2, 2008 22:37

#11

MARRIE
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Join Date: Jan 7, 2008
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Thanks Jimmy. I am an old student not an economist.

US is no Russia, China is no Japan. I mean both nations are rational, wise and responsible in solving global issues.

Corrupted officers ( i bet most of them were under educated in Mao's dynasty)existed in state-owed enterprises 10 yr ago, things have changed a lot now i believe. Actually corrupion can also be found in the west public corp, but they have more advanced regulatory system to control dark side of human nature.

Feb 2, 2008 23:54

#12

JCNILE123
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Join Date: Mar 30, 2006
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Jimmy, the 3.50 Yuan x 1.00 US dollar factor it is not because the weakness of the USA Dollar but because Chinas Yuan have been under value for many years.
Poverty in China has to come to a measure equal to the west if ever China will allow the Yuan to reach its real value.

Quote, (((China is able to make its currency strong as long as it is willing to use modern infrastructure at the expense of millions of millions of labors losing jobs – social chaos and turmoil.))))

The poverty line in the USA as we speak is around $12000.00 US Dollars.
Any one individual that makes around $12000.00 US Dollars is consider to be around or below the poverty line for 2008.

Feb 3, 2008 09:01

#13

MARRIE
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Join Date: Jan 7, 2008
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" the 3.50 Yuan x 1.00 US dollar factor it is not because the weakness of the USA Dollar but because Chinas Yuan have been under value for many years."

Exactly JC. China's has not totally transformed to free floating exchg system. If China's government giving up control Forex, I am afraid we can see u$ 1: rmb 3.5 sooner or later.

As far as i've known, there is a significant gap between the poor and the rich. And China's gov is subsidizing those at the poverty level in different ways.

Feb 3, 2008 21:11

#14

JIMMYB
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Join Date: Feb 7, 2007
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"Exactly JC. China's has not totally transformed to free floating exchg system. If China's government giving up control Forex, I am afraid we can see u$ 1: rmb 3.5 sooner or later. "

Well, it is true that u$ 1: rmb 3.5 will be seen if China's government gives up controlling Forex. But I wonder if it is really good to do so. Most part of China's Forex holdings are US dollars. If China gives up controling Forex, what will happen? Actually, many people have suggest that China should sell its holding of dollars because dollar has been declining seriously. Do you think it is good for US economy?

Feb 3, 2008 21:52	#15
MARRIE Points: Join Date: Jan 7, 2008 Status: Offline	Jimmy, "If China's government giving up control Forex, I am afraid we can see u$ 1: rmb 3.5 sooner or later. " It's just a predicted ex rate on the assumption of China's gov allows free ex system in domestic mkt.

Feb 3, 2008 22:02	#16
MARRIE Points: Join Date: Jan 7, 2008 Status: Offline	''Actually, many people have suggest that China should sell its holding of dollars because dollar has been declining seriously.'' Do you see from media that china gov is seeking investing mkt abroad and keeping reasonable reserves as chips for global curr mkt gambling.

Feb 4, 2008 19:47

#17

JIMMYB
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Join Date: Feb 7, 2007
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"Do you see from media that china gov is seeking investing mkt abroad and keeping reasonable reserves as chips for global curr mkt gambling."

Of course. Doing investment and selling dollar are different. Recently, several Chinese corporations have started to invest in US companies. This is good for US economy. But China should be careful. Remember Blackstone? China's national investment company invested much money in that company and didn't make any profits.

Feb 8, 2008 17:39

#18

MARRIE
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Join Date: Jan 7, 2008
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Chinese Govt has 10% holdings of non-voting equity of Blackstone and Blackstone who has large stake on collapsing realeste.

Blackstone deal is part of baigaining chip in intense economic relationship between sino-US. Steven Schwarzman, founder of Blackstone and Bush's Yale mate, raised funds for Republicans last year.

Besides, Cn govt sufferred losses from US treasuries investment due to US economic downturn. Now i think they are looking at Euro market.

Feb 13, 2008 21:40	#19
JIMMYB Points: Join Date: Feb 7, 2007 Status: Offline	Quote:" Besides, Cn govt sufferred losses from US treasuries investment due to US economic downturn. Now i think they are looking at Euro market." Blackstone case is a good lesson for China National Investment Company. They should be cautious in their future investment. Personally, I don't think China will end their investment in America.

Feb 17, 2008 23:05

#20

GUEST85224

I think the importance of China's foreign currency reserves are overstated. To just clean up the tangled mess of one of China's largest banks could absorb 20% or more of the governments total reserves. The issue of exchange rates is important and the volatility of this market most not be overlooked. January 2009 hopefully America will become a functioning democracy again with a rational head of state. Another Paul Ruben like Secretary of the Treasury combined with a bursting or at least a rupturing of China's housing market and we could see 7.75RMB to $1 very quickly.

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