Is it a coincidence?

Is it a coincidence?
Jul 18, 2008 03:42
JIMMYB Points: Join Date: Feb 7, 2007 Status: offline	On July 17th, NBS (China National Bureau of Statistics) issued some ecnomic data including CPI and GDP. The CPI has increased 7.9 percent in June on the previous year. As for GDP growth, it has increased 10.4 percent over the same period of last year. However, Reuters had forecasted China's June CPI correctly nine days in advance. Unbelievable! It is usual that those investment banks or other organizations make predictions before NBS issued related data. However, they seldom predicted correctly. This time, Reuters has predicted CPI and GDP growth accurately. How could they do it? is it just a coincidence?

Jul 18, 2008 03:42

JIMMYB
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Join Date: Feb 7, 2007
Status: offline

On July 17th, NBS (China National Bureau of Statistics) issued some ecnomic data including CPI and GDP. The CPI has increased 7.9 percent in June on the previous year. As for GDP growth, it has increased 10.4 percent over the same period of last year. However, Reuters had forecasted China's June CPI correctly nine days in advance. Unbelievable!

It is usual that those investment banks or other organizations make predictions before NBS issued related data. However, they seldom predicted correctly. This time, Reuters has predicted CPI and GDP growth accurately. How could they do it? is it just a coincidence?

Jul 18, 2008 11:33	#1
GARYKINKADE Points: Join Date: Jan 8, 2008 Status: Offline	IMO, either a lucky guess or inside(er) information.

Jul 18, 2008 22:52	#2
COOLSPRINGS Points: Join Date: May 19, 2008 Status: Offline	Stats China is beginning to be well functioning and be closer to international standards-transparency, integrety-Stats Bureau is institution that is supposed to monitor the health of macroeconomy.

Jul 20, 2008 21:56	#3
KEVIN0518 Points: Join Date: Mar 13, 2007 Status: Offline	I guess that it is inside information. Reuters has reported this news on July 8th and 15th. It is confident about the truth of the data. I am curious about where it got the information. According to the rule, those statists are not allowed to disclose the "top secrets" before the government issues them.

Jul 26, 2008 15:33	#4
COOLSPRINGS Points: Join Date: May 19, 2008 Status: Offline	Kevin, strick disclosure and info. transparency avoid uncertainty and panic shock. However, in a fragile and close system, those rules are totally ignored.

Aug 7, 2008 01:16

AL32
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Join Date: Sep 11, 2007
Status: Offline

On your picture the tittle reads: "China's June inflation eases 7.1 pct: sources" ---> noticed the ": sources" part?!? There you go!; they have good connections and good sources..not just a lucky guess..
Heck, wherever there are people involved, there's always a chance of leaked information...
I even remember seeing the Canadian official yearly budget speach being moved 2 days earlier because the official and locked document magically became public a few days before the official government release...

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