| Which country will have hegemony in forty years? | |
|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2008 22:47 |   |
 | China Russia United States Japan European Union African Union Other Which country will have hegemony in forty years? |
| Jul 27, 2008 22:50 | #1 |
| Given the rise of China as an economic and military power, the resurgance of Russian nationalism and a strong desire amongst the US conservatives to maintain American hegemony, which nation do you think will have hegemony in the next forty years? |
| Jul 28, 2008 07:58 | #2 |
| GUEST54109 | Chinese always ask this question again and again. Why?// |
| Jul 28, 2008 12:14 | #3 |
| Forty years is a long time considering the fast pace of modern developments! However it is possible that there may be even less of a difference between cultures by that date. The sharing of ideas and technology will have a leveling effect. then again, who can say what the political systems of the areas mentioned will be like? Some may become more repressive and some more friendly. A lot can happen in 40 years! |
| Jul 29, 2008 00:07 | #4 |
| GUEST05022 | I would say not China and Not Russia. But maybe no one at all. Hegemony doesnt always exist: 1 - Predictions of Chinese hegemony are based on trend analysis over the last decade or so. In fact this is a terrible theory. China's economic growth is unsustainable at current levels (even down to 10%GDP), addicted to cheap credit and fuel subsidies which are bleeding the government in these times of high commodity prices, suffering from catastrophic environmental damage (which if factored in as negative growth actually means china has no net growth already - this is from China's envrionmental government departments), growing political and social instability, a lack of resources food, oil, coal, etc, . China will overtake japan in GDP by...... has just been factored down by 2% a year for example (with growth having fallen) 2 - Geopolitically China has fundamental weaknesses that the US does not have to deal with. Huge land borders including two massive Eurasian powers -Russia and India. As well as ethnic minority boderlands which will always have the potential for unrest under a Han dominated system. China has to be constantly aware of this, whereas the US does not have to worry about challenges anywhere near the homeland - Mexico and Canada??! 3 - Demographically China is heading for a serious crisis as the One Child generation becomes the dominant part of the work force over the next 20 years. Having to support their parents who are often from multi-sibling families and their children who will be in many cases eligible for two offspring. 4 - China is already facing insurmountable problems with unemployment, inflation, expensive subsidies, overheating in certain economic areas, and profitless growth. Solving any one of these problems will only exacerbate others... |
| Aug 2, 2008 04:08 | #5 |
| YINDUFFY ,you are right ,it is hard to tell ,it is just an opinion poll according to the advantages of each nation. |
| Aug 2, 2008 04:22 | #6 |
| YINDUFFY ,1.China do not have food problem while oil and coal is only a problem of china 2.US also has fundamental weaknesses that China does not have to deal with,China don't need to gingerly nose about terrorist and bombs,all the muslim countries are unrest towards US 3.China's crisis due to One Child generation will be soon pass within 20 years or less.40 years are long enough for catching up 4.i agree with you |
| Aug 2, 2008 08:50 | #7 |
| One child policy applying specially on Han,s, mean while other ethnic group will develop and came to equal of Han . |
| Aug 2, 2008 18:40 | #8 |
| Consider the year 1908 and then consider the year 1948. think how things changed in ways unforeseen at the time! Empires collapsed, Nations formed that didn't exist, colonies became independent. I will guess that India and China will have a war and settle their border disputes. Russia will collapse again. More people will keep moving to the U.S. for opportunities and The Middle East countries will calm down after oil runs out there. Any other guesses? |
| Aug 2, 2008 23:44 | #9 |
| GUEST59184 | There seems no wall for those who intend to ride on to see the war. US will keep the leadership worldwide. China and India will continue to rise in peaceful enviroment. some of so called developed nations will decline and have less and less chance to depend on USA for their "members in US allies". |
| Aug 3, 2008 21:11 | #10 |
| Lionpower,we have considered the prob you mentioned while One child policy is not applying specially on Han,there is a rule mentioned in our law：“One child policy towards minorities :"minorities which population under 10 million are allowed to have 2 kids,some exceptive couples can apply for having 3 kids,4 kids is not allowed.:" |
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