Do you think Doha talks will be successful this time?

Do you think Doha talks will be successful this time?
Aug 11, 2008 04:46	#11
GUEST7273	The present strains on the world economy, notably the imbalance between supply and demand of raw materials and a rising protectionist clamour threatens this progress. And it threatens it at a moment of huge geopolitical upheaval as the global order adjusts to the emergence of China and India as great powers. Earlier this summer I heard a senior US official set out two possible paths for the next decade or so. Along one lay a world fractured by Malthusian competition for resources and by mercantilist trade policies; along another one, free international markets were underpinned by multilateralism. As it happens, this official was speaking at a conference in Beijing. His hosts nodded in approval at the implicit warning. None has benefited as much as China from the opening of the world economy. Over and again, I heard senior Chinese officials emphasise the commitment to preserve a rules-based system. The collapse of Doha, however, speaks to the failure of both sides to own up to the world as it is. On the side of the rich countries, particularly the US but no less many European nations, there is a refusal to acknowledge that globalisation no longer belongs to the west. In previous trade rounds, the rich nations set the rules and the rest could take it or leave it. No longer. Equally, the new powers now give the impression – and you see this as much in India as China – that they want to be free riders. They are happy to profit from the rules, but unwilling to support the architecture of the system. Doha, in this respect, saw both sides in blindfolds. The implications reach well beyond trade. The parallel with the need to strike a global bargain on climate change is the obvious one. But there are a host of other areas – think of nuclear non-proliferation, energy security, state failure, terrorism – where the habit of multilateralism offers the only sensible answers. A trade deal in Geneva would have offered a glimmer of hope that world leaders understand this.

Aug 11, 2008 04:46

#11

GUEST7273

The present strains on the world economy, notably the imbalance between supply and demand of raw materials and a rising protectionist clamour threatens this progress. And it threatens it at a moment of huge geopolitical upheaval as the global order adjusts to the emergence of China and India as great powers.

Earlier this summer I heard a senior US official set out two possible paths for the next decade or so. Along one lay a world fractured by Malthusian competition for resources and by mercantilist trade policies; along another one, free international markets were underpinned by multilateralism.

As it happens, this official was speaking at a conference in Beijing. His hosts nodded in approval at the implicit warning. None has benefited as much as China from the opening of the world economy. Over and again, I heard senior Chinese officials emphasise the commitment to preserve a rules-based system.

The collapse of Doha, however, speaks to the failure of both sides to own up to the world as it is. On the side of the rich countries, particularly the US but no less many European nations, there is a refusal to acknowledge that globalisation no longer belongs to the west. In previous trade rounds, the rich nations set the rules and the rest could take it or leave it. No longer.

Equally, the new powers now give the impression – and you see this as much in India as China – that they want to be free riders. They are happy to profit from the rules, but unwilling to support the architecture of the system. Doha, in this respect, saw both sides in blindfolds.

The implications reach well beyond trade. The parallel with the need to strike a global bargain on climate change is the obvious one. But there are a host of other areas – think of nuclear non-proliferation, energy security, state failure, terrorism – where the habit of multilateralism offers the only sensible answers. A trade deal in Geneva would have offered a glimmer of hope that world leaders understand this.

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