Three scenarios of Russia-Georgia conflict

Three scenarios of Russia-Georgia conflict
Aug 12, 2008 02:33
guestsu-27	Russia and Georgia are at war. What are the prospects of the crisis? Will the conflict escalate to a larger regional war or even a world war? British Guardian media propose three scenarios: Scenario One: “If Russia was serious about its peacekeeping role in the region, it would do no more than push Georgian forces out of South Ossetia and attempt to return to the status quo before fighting broke out last week. Returning to the status quo will not be easy, however. Georgia have to face the fact that Moscow annexes South Ossetia into the Russian Federation. Scenario Two: The conflict could widen. Already Georgia's other separatist region, the Black Sea enclave of Abkhazia, is mobilising, and the capital, Tbilisi, has come under aerial attack. Other small nations could become involved in a broader Caucasian war. Even Chechnya has offered to send peacekeepers to Georgia and Russia's Cossacks are also volunteering to go to the front. The Kremlin could take advantage of the chaos to try to overthrow Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, whom it has hated since the 2003 "Rose revolution". Some Russian officials are calling for a Hague-style tribunal at which Saakashvili would be tried as a war criminal. Georgia's own hard-won independence could be at stake if Russia imposed a puppet regime in Tbilisi. Scenario Three: The conflict spreads further still, bringing in former Soviet republics such as Ukraine which, like Georgia, aspires to membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and Kazakhstan, which is loyal to Moscow. The war in Yugoslavia would seem like small fry compared with any war among former Soviet republics. The only thing worse than that would be the military involvement of the West, which looks unlikely, given Europe's dependence on Russian energy and America's and Britain's commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Do you think which scenario is most likely result?

Aug 12, 2008 02:33

guestsu-27

Russia and Georgia are at war. What are the prospects of the crisis? Will the conflict escalate to a larger regional war or even a world war? British Guardian media propose three scenarios:

Scenario One:
“If Russia was serious about its peacekeeping role in the region, it would do no more than push Georgian forces out of South Ossetia and attempt to return to the status quo before fighting broke out last week. Returning to the status quo will not be easy, however. Georgia have to face the fact that Moscow annexes South Ossetia into the Russian Federation.

Scenario Two:
The conflict could widen. Already Georgia's other separatist region, the Black Sea enclave of Abkhazia, is mobilising, and the capital, Tbilisi, has come under aerial attack. Other small nations could become involved in a broader Caucasian war. Even Chechnya has offered to send peacekeepers to Georgia and Russia's Cossacks are also volunteering to go to the front. The Kremlin could take advantage of the chaos to try to overthrow Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, whom it has hated since the 2003 "Rose revolution". Some Russian officials are calling for a Hague-style tribunal at which Saakashvili would be tried as a war criminal. Georgia's own hard-won independence could be at stake if Russia imposed a puppet regime in Tbilisi.

Scenario Three:
The conflict spreads further still, bringing in former Soviet republics such as Ukraine which, like Georgia, aspires to membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and Kazakhstan, which is loyal to Moscow. The war in Yugoslavia would seem like small fry compared with any war among former Soviet republics. The only thing worse than that would be the military involvement of the West, which looks unlikely, given Europe's dependence on Russian energy and America's and Britain's commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Do you think which scenario is most likely result?

Aug 17, 2008 10:20

YINDUFFY
Points:
Join Date: Aug 8, 2007
Status: Offline

The other countries that are now independent and were part of the Soviet Union want no part of a new Russian Empire. They have seen firsthand what the Russians are capable of doing and if given a choice would not align themselves with Russia.
They are now scared and looking for assurances from the West of protection.

Why are there no embedded reporters with the Russian Army? What has happened to Georgian prisoners taken by the Russians? Has the Russian Army sent food and medicine to the Georgians caught in the fighting? Are the Russians using depleted Uranium in the weapons used to destroy Georgian tanks? Have they used fuel-Air munitions? Who will investigate?

Aug 17, 2008 18:08	#2
MARRIE Points: Join Date: Jan 7, 2008 Status: Offline	I lived in russian, ukrainian dominated community for quite a while, they are friendly but arrogant. As people from a declining empire, i think they must feel deeply lost...Shock Therapy brought them tremendous pains. Deeply distrust between two powers could make Slavic areas a long term war field.

Aug 17, 2008 21:34	#3
SUMMERSNOW Points: Join Date: Dec 19, 2007 Status: Offline	USA has signed agreements with Ukraine on deploying missile shield in Ukraine border. Russia said that the act is a threat to its national security.

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