| Will the economic crisis attack China over the next FIVE years? | |
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| Feb 13, 2011 00:32 |   |
 | Voting without time limit Note: Guest voter(s) are not displayed here. What do you think of his predication? |
| Feb 13, 2011 04:18 | #1 |
| Seems like every now and then pops up someone who wants to get to headlines. Now that companies live in quarters it is very easy to predict that within five-ten years something happens somewhere. The world economy seems to be living even in shorter terms. All it takes is that some big named banker from Wall Street says that some beng is falling. Next day the markets are in panic. Or what do you think would happen if ten men would march in the streets of Riad demanding democracy and one of them being beaten by police? Next day perhaps thousand, next fifty thousand, next friday in every street in every city hundreds of thousands of people... Oil prices definitely would not rise, eh? Today when the money has its hands on the steering wheel and every one is running mindlesly for more money - like those racing horses you know, they can not see to their sides because they have those... what are they called on the sides of their head - the reality is that there is reality no more What do I think of this prediction? I think it is better than "some day there will be little green men walking in the streets of Naples". Carlos |
| Feb 13, 2011 10:12 | #2 |
| There is no question of China facing serious economic difficulties unless its leadership suddenly becomes stupid. Sure there are new leaders due in the near future and my not so hot sources say they are perhaps a little more traditional and might slow things a bit. But that should not be an issue. China is already the powerhouse of the world economy ad it will continue for a long time to come. The economy cannot grow at the present pace for ever but it will grow for many many years ie decades. Factor in its economic colonialism in Africa and there's no way to doubt China's future economic growth. (Moral and social growth is something else!!!) |
| Feb 14, 2011 18:28 | #3 |
| GUEST11357 | Ancient Chinese Proverb: "The Candle That Burns Twice As Bright Only Lasts Half As Long"...America lasted 50-60 years..China should last about 20-25..so that leaves about 5 before the flame goes out. |
| Feb 18, 2011 10:04 | #4 |
| No, China faces a chance (not a risk) over the next 5 yrs. I think there is not a major upset for Chinese economy. |
| Feb 19, 2011 20:36 | #5 |
| I am not an economist. I can not predict what will happen in the future. But I really suggest that China should learn lessons from other countries like Japan and United States. The outrageous housing prices is really a serious issue in China. If China can not handle it properly, what has happened in Japan in 20th century will happen in China. Japan once had property bubbles. |
| Apr 12, 2011 04:39 | #6 |
| I think China may face an economic crisis due to the housing issue. Just as in the US, people are buying houses purely as investments. As in the US, the houses are being sold higher than they are really worth (for instance, in investigating buying a house in Guangzhou, I noticed that housing prices are much higher than what you can get for rent). The rate of return on rental properties is aprox 3.7 across the major cities in China: usually 6 to 7 percent indicates that the property is realistically valued. I've decided to rent until housing prices come down, as the rental prices are much more reasonable. For the sake of China's economy, I hope the housing market comes down gradually and sanely, but there's no guarantee. |
| Apr 12, 2011 22:28 | #7 |
| Quote:Originally Posted by PYGRANT I've decided to rent until housing prices come down, as the rental prices are much more reasonable. For the sake of China's economy, I hope the housing market comes down gradually and sanely, but there's no guarantee.I have the same idea with you about renting a house other than buying one. But how long will it go till the housing market comes down? Someone say it needs 20 years. I'm afraid I cannnot wait that long. Maybe I'll buy an old one someday. It's cheaper. |
| Apr 29, 2011 00:37 | #8 |
| For many years most established western countries allowed China to be the factory to the world. It suited all parties and was a win win situation. The relatively low cost and abundance of Chinese labor and low first world interest rates meant everyone was happy. China lent the foreign currency made from her exports back to the western world and the world used that money to buy more of what China made. Instead of manufacturing, the western world made absurd financial deals and sold overpriced houses to each other. Now the western world is broke. The world can never repay it's debt and is devaluing it's currency in a last ditch effort to lighten the debt load. Everyone is trying to devalue but the US dollar is still the defacto currency to the world. The US is printing more money which makes it worth less against everything. Everything denominated in US dollars is skyrocketing because the value of the US dollar is plummeting. China is now caught in the bind that America created. Inflation is causing food, fuel and house prices to rise everywhere. In Egypt, Tunisia and Libya the effect has been dramatic. The contagion is spreading fast. Do you really believe China alone will be immune? |
Last edited by BOBERT: Apr 29, 2011 00:43 |
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