| China, India, who will lead the 2nd world? | |
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| Sep 30, 2007 02:09 |   |
 | For several decades, China and India have been regarded as the big brother of the tertiary world. Recently, as the robust economic growth of two countries, the Sino-India relationship has aroused global concern. Several days ago, I read a post at a website. The following excerpt reminds me of something. "Also, don't underestimate India, they are quickly developing. China and India are perhaps two of the world's greatest Economic Superpowers." "As long as we control the sea lanes the air it does not matter how strong your army is we can easily cut off your oil out of the indian ocean thats all we have to do" Such opionions held by some general public reflects that China and India are competing against each other to strive for the leadership of the second world. Despite of the rivalry in terms of politics and military, the economic tie between the two countries strenghthened rather than decreased. The economic cooperation between China and India is soaring. For the foreseeable future, there will be not only confrontations and frictions, but also economic cooperation. However, the vicissitudes of international relation is unpredictable. In the 20 years, what is the outlook of bilateral tie? Can you forecast? |
| Sep 30, 2007 07:49 | #1 |
| Of course, China will be!! |
| Oct 7, 2007 02:25 | #2 |
| GUESTKAMAL S... | i think growth rate of indian economy is more than china.if i take it on the sense of freedom of india and FDI allowance enter in india. so actual growth of indian economy start after 90's that is the reason of slow growth of india but now speed of growing of indian economy is very good as per china growth now retail king walmart going to enter in India so that will be good for indian economy. so if we compare india as well as china than after 10 years india will overtake china |
| Oct 7, 2007 04:38 | #3 |
| Quote: "Of course, China will be!!" I guess your judgement is too quick and too partisan. That's normal in a way... The fact is that these 2 different nations are not developing in the same way. China put all its hope on the International market, becoming the world factory. But this choice is based on low quality labour, with a low education which implies low costs. The recent development of Universities wont change the trend: many educated Chinese cannot find a job that corresponds to their skills. What is needed there for now is (mainly) low cost labour. India chose another way which is more sound to me. They developed on the domestic market and on high technology (computer science especially) services. The country is still poor just like China, its population growth is more important than the Chinese one, its agriculture system is well conceived. The Bombay stockmarket is one of the most modern stockmarket in the world with an extraordinary stability and a very strong progression (nearly a confidential one since it just have partnerships with the German Boerse with is usually very stable). Now India is better placed to develop on long term. Its strategy is a long term one not a short or middle term one like the Chinese one. So I guess in 10 years China will still be the first compared with India but this will change and in 20 years India will take the lead. |
| Oct 10, 2007 04:22 | #4 |
| Quote: India chose another way which is more sound to me. They developed on the domestic market and on high technology (computer science especially) services. Erencius, do you really think that India's development is sound. It is true that India has been attaching much importance to Hi-tech industry. In particular, its software industry is rivaling against "Silicon Valley". However, India's development is extremely asymmetrical. India develops its software industry at the cost of other industries. A large portion of its fund was spent in developing software industry. Agriculture and other industries are left behind. |
| Oct 10, 2007 05:56 | #5 |
| Unless India can overcome its “caste system” which stops its people from improving their social position, even with education from improving their lives, the whole country will not move forward as quickly as it needs to. It will be stuck with a huge population who are destined to live their lives in poverty Dodger. |
| Oct 11, 2007 15:10 | #6 |
| I do agree that the caste system is still a problem Dodger, but it needs a bit more time to be overcome, it is evolving slowly but surely. I do more agree with Katrina: recycling and modernizing the Agricultural system for India, which means to find jobs for those who are no more needed in the fields. But my point is that the more our Western societies develop the more we are consuming services. The main positive point about India is that one. Everything has been based on services so the other sectors are weaker than it should be. But I guess It will grow continuously this way. The Idian markets are still quite protected from the international competition. That's why I think that in 20 years the Indian society might well be a very good alternative to China... Chinese labor costs will raise but the Indian ones, except for services which will still be very well paid, will be more competitive (since indian companies are reluctant to employ people from the lowest castes, western ones will most probably happily take their place) and very efficient in the Service sector. These are just ideas, I m not saying it is bound to happen. |
| Oct 18, 2007 21:36 | #7 |
| "My point is that the more our Western societies develop the more we are consuming services. The main positive point about India is that one." This idea reminds me that In 2004 Americans worried about the problems caused by 'offshoring". Many Americans believed that the increasing unemployment rate was caused by offshoring. Manufacturing offshored, Service industries offshored. For the lower-middle class, offshoring is not a good thing. Everthing offshored to Asia. What have been left for them to do? |
| Oct 19, 2007 10:43 | #8 |
| The only way for western civilization is to go forward inventing. We have to develop news products, new program, new cells, new technologies so that we maintain some fields in our bosom. Otherwise we ll just become the new third world ;-). Nanotechnologies, Ecology, Space engineering... this is the way we must head toward. So it means less stupid TV programs, more money on education budget to support poor population school fees so that we can adapt the shape of our societies to this world we are no more leading. We must give people the opportunity to get smarter not making it as a folk of sheep, promoting people thinking by themselves rather than what we are doing today... Dumb people are easier to manage for a government, but we are just going toward the wrong direction by now... |
| Oct 20, 2007 03:57 | #9 |
| What forced the government in the UK to introduce education to the common people was the need of the factories in the Industrial revolution who needed more educated workers. Those that could read and write. This demand has not ceased. It is one that the ruling classes feared as they did not want the people to be able to vote or to decide their own fate as they understood it. Education will be the key to all countries moving forward. And sadly Africa will be the last. Dodger. |
| Oct 20, 2007 23:16 | #10 |
| I say china because of this. This numbers are good up to early 2006. China at the right Nation India at the left $81,480,000,00 Yearly Military Expenditure $19,040,000,000 18 Minimum Enlistment Age 17 342,956,265 Available Military Manpower 287,551,111 7,024,000 Total Military Personnel 3,773,300 2,255,000 Active Frontline Personnel 1,325,000 9,218 Aircraft 3,382 13,200 Armor 5,815 29,060 Artillery 7,100 18,500 Missile Defense Systems 7,175 34,000 Infantry Support Systems 7,450 284 Navy Units 145 1,700 Merchant Marine Units 313 7 Major Ports 8 3,504,000 (bbl per day) Oil Production 785,000 (bbl per day) 6,391,000 (bbl per day) Oil Consumption 2,320,000 (bbl per day) 18,260,000,000 Proven Oil Reserves 5,700,000,000 $100,000,000 Arms Exports $NR $NR Arms Imports $NR 1,809,829 Km Roadways 3,851,440 Km 71,898 Km Railways 63,230 Km 123,964 Km Waterways 14,500 Km 9,596,960 Sq Km Land Area 3,287,590 Sq Km 489 Airports 334 791,400,000 Labor Force 496,400,000 $8,182,000,000,000 Purchasing Power $3,699,000,000,000 $795,100,000,000 Gold Reserves $145,000,000,000 |
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