| Who should thoese investors believe, Rogers or Buffet? | |
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| Sep 24, 2007 03:07 |   |
 | Those who do investment business must be familiar with the two investment masters----Rogers and Buffet. In China, both are welcomed by Chinese investors. Some even regard them as the God of the stock market because they can forecast the market track. On the issue of China's stock market, those two masters have different understandings. Rogers believe that China's stock market still keeps its momentum though the bubble of A shares is in its initial stage. He predicts that the bull market will at least last for 15 years. The upper limit of A shares is 10000 points. However, Buffet, another investment master does not have positive attitude toward China's stock market, juding from his recent moves. He seldom comments on China's stock market.But he made a great success. In 2000, he bought many shares of PetroChina Company at lower prices. Seven years later, the price of PetroChina Company H shares has reached 12.96 HK dollars. Buffet has got profitable reward from this successful investment. In recent days, he has decreased the H shares of PetroChina Company from 11.05% to 8.93%. Why? Did he also fear the bubble of China's stock market? Confronted by the two masters' different reactions to China's stock market, Chinese investors feel quite confused. They do not know who they should believe. What do you think of the different reactions of those two masters? Do they suggest something deep? Who should they believe, Rogers or Buffet? |
| Sep 25, 2007 01:03 | #1 |
| Who should they believe? They should believe themselves. Other people's suggestions are only references. Masters's prediction sometimes are not correct. They are all humans,not God. Why did he sell the H shares of PetroChina? He is very smart. At present, the shares of PetroChina are very valuable so that many people want to hold them. This is not a good signal. The difference between the master and the ordinaries is that the master have shrewd insight. They can find those potential shares and do investment to make money. Keep your brain sober! This is very important. |
| Sep 25, 2007 01:54 | #2 |
| I think perhaps you misundrstand the investment strategy of Buffet. Firstly he dos not claim to predict the market except that over a long enough period prices will rise. He seeks solid companies that are undervalued on the stock markt and considers if he went to sleep for 20 years they would still be valauble at the end of that time. That is real investmnt not speculation. He has reduced his holdings in PetroChina by abot 10%, that certainly does not say he lacks faith in the chinese economy. maybe he needed some funds to make an alternative investment, that is a wise spread of his funds which reduces risk. This is essentially the same as the investment technique that seeks to balance the portfolio by selling off some shares of those that have made gains. You might also call this taking part profits. (A good but extreme example of this is if u buy a share at $1 and it rises to $2. If you then sell half, that half is your original investment and if the share price drops down you still have the original investment). I am not sure I would want to predict a bull market lasting 15 years, too much can happen in that time. International politics could cause a world slump. At th very least we are likely to see cycles within the 15 year period as some speculators panic and sell on the slightest bad news - you won't find Buffet in tht group. |
| Sep 26, 2007 03:23 | #3 |
| He predicts that the bull market will at least last for 15 years. The upper limit of A shares is 10000 points. How can he make such a surprising prediction? This is ridiculous! He is too positive toward China's stock market. Compared with Buffet, he seldom buys shares in the stock market in 2007. What does this suggest? If he is confident toward China's stock market, why not do some investment? |
| Sep 26, 2007 17:30 | #4 |
| Quote: "If he is confident toward China's stock market, why not do some investment?" Let's say you can be rather optimistic, but it doesn t mean you ll dare to invest. Chinese market is not especially stable. Maybe it is a strategy to influence investors. Who knows? |
| Sep 27, 2007 01:38 | #5 |
| Well, it is hard for us to know what those investment masters think about. In all, Buffet has decreased his holdings in PetroChina for three times. By decreasing his holdings, he has earned about 1.6 billion Hong Kong dollars. However, it seems that he made a big mistake this time. After 18 days when he decreased his holdings, PetroChina's shares have increased about 25%, which is higer than his annual investment return rate (16%). It is a pity that he has decreased his holdings too earlier. |
| Oct 12, 2007 10:14 | #6 |
| Good one Jimmy, I hadn't seen that. Just proves that even Buffet isn't perfect, but of course he isn't concerned about a small increase like that, he is long term and divide the increased value by the years he held the shares... and then the extra 25% is much less. |
| Oct 15, 2007 04:27 | #7 |
| Maye he just want to find other potential shares and do investment in them. At present, more and more investors have invested in the PetrolChina since it can bring profitable benefits. But what if it suddenly break down (though the chance is too little)? Usually, those smart people are different with the ordinary ones. It is not a good omen that more and more investors just do investment in buying the shares of the same company. |
| Oct 19, 2007 22:53 | #8 |
| On Oct.19, he said that he had sold all his holdings of PetrolChina. Seeing PetrolChina's shares surging rapidly, he said that it might be too earlier to sell his holdings. Hhaha, humans are just humans, not God. It is no surprise that Buffet 'made a mistake' this time. |
| Oct 23, 2007 12:17 | #9 |
| How can you say he made a mistake? He sold at a profit. If you are too greedy you can hang on too long. |
| Oct 26, 2007 19:04 | #10 |
| It's too early to say if he made a mistake or not. If the stock drops 30%, 40% in the coming weeks months then his timing was quite good actually. But if it continues to climb steadily for a year or more, then we can say that yes, this time he made a mistake. We can't judge him right now though. |
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